Baccarat Odds & House Edge
Baccarat (Punto Banco) has exactly three bets. Here are the true odds for each.
Banker
Best BetBest bet in baccarat. Commission is taken at settlement.
Player
Second-best bet. No commission, slightly worse edge than Banker.
Tie
Avoid. High payout masks terrible house edge.
How the Probabilities Work
In an eight-deck Punto Banco game, there are 4,998,398,275,503,360 possible hand outcomes. The three result probabilities are: Banker wins 45.87%, Player wins 44.63%, Tie 9.51%. These add to 100%.
The 5% commission on Banker wins is the mechanism that creates the house edge. Without it, Banker would be a +EV bet — the drawing rules favour Banker winning slightly more than half of non-tied hands. The commission reduces the effective payout from 1:1 to 0.95:1, creating a 1.06% edge for the house.
The Tie bet pays 8:1 on a 9.51% probability. True odds would be approximately 9.47:1. The gap between 8:1 paid and ~9.47:1 true creates the 14.36% house edge — one of the worst bets in any table game.
Strategy Summary
- • Always bet Banker. 1.06% is one of the lowest house edges in any casino game — lower than craps pass line (1.41%), far lower than roulette (2.7%).
- • Never bet Tie. 14.36% house edge. The 8:1 payout is enticing but does not remotely compensate for the low probability.
- • Commission-free Banker baccarat — some tables offer this variant with a modified payout (Banker winning on 6 pays 0.5:1 instead of 0.95:1). The edge may be slightly different; check the specific rules.
- • Baccarat is one of the lowest-skill-input games — there are no decisions after placing the bet. The edge is determined entirely by bet selection, not play decisions.